If you frisk me, I’m gonna expect you to take me out to dinner.

— Reid (to Henry)

2011 Daytime Emmy Nomination Predictions | Best Supporting Actor

Not much has been written since the pre-noms were announced for the 38th Annual Daytime Emmy Awards. But official nominees are due to be announced this Wednesday, May 11th, and based on the Daytime Emmy’s home page, all is proceeding according to schedule.

A few people have gone out on a limb to make their predictions, with Nelson Branco being the most prominent (and offering his list in today’s SoapGeist). And so far it’s almost unanimous – nearly everybody has Eric on their list!

If you want to see Eric’s, Trent’s or Jonathan Jackson’s reels (confirmed as the ones they’ve submitted), click here.

Details after the jump…

How are the nominees determined again?

As a reminder of the process:

  • Pre-Pre Noms (Submissions): Actors decide whether or not they want to be considered (“submit”) themselves for consideration for a Daytime Emmy. Actors on continuing shows (i.e., all but ATWT) may have their applications supported by their shows (who pay the entry fees and the cost of creating reels, etc). However, shows may discourage actors from entering in order to put their eggs in what they feel will be the most successful baskets (i.e., to avoid splitting the vote). Actors not supported by their shows (including ATWT’s) can choose to submit on their own. Eric submitted; Van did not.
  • Pre-Noms: From the list of those who submitted, the list is whittled down to two (or occasionally three) per show per category (e.g., Lead Actor or Supporting Actress). This is done by a vote of their industry “peers” and NO screenings of any clips was required for this step (so who knows how people are making their judgments – the pre-nom list has been very controversial this year). Eric and Trent Dawson were the only two ATWT entries for Supporting Actor, so they both automatically became pre-noms.
  • Nominees: AFTER the official list of pre-noms is announced, actors then submitted a “reel” which consisted of ALL their scenes from any ONE episode aired in 2010. Eric submitted the Elevator Scene episode. These reels for all of the pre-noms for any one category are then sent out to the reviewers on DVD to review. I can’t quite tell which line of the following applies to the actors: “Performers and Crafts will be evaluated using a 1-10 scale for Creativity and Execution. All Drama categories will employ a 1-5 preferential scoring system.” The top 5 vote getters become the nominees to be announced on Wednesday.
  • Emmy Award Winner: There is no additional round of judging of the nominees. The top vote getter (of the nominees) is automatically the winner, so the auditors will know that information already. They just won’t be announced until the awards ceremony on June 19th (Eric’s birthday, incidentally) in Las Vegas.

Nelson Branco’s predictions

Though many individuals have released their list of nominees, Nelson Branco is probably the best known among the predictors. In today’s SoapGeist (where you can see all of the major categories), says:

In soaps, you’re either in or you’re out. Or you have a lot of pals in the voting pool!

This year’s Emmy nominations could turn out to be really good or really bad, depending on whether or not the Academy chooses excellent acting over popularity….

TV Guide Canada managed to get our hands on all the Emmy reels; after viewing them, we’re offering our picks for the final five to six nominees per category in the major categories based on reel submission, pure acting, and a bit of politics and voter appeal….

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR
— Jacob Young (JR, AMC) 2/26/10
— Eric Sheffer Stevens (Reid, World Turns) 3/29/10
— Jason Thompson (Patrick, GH) 8/24/10
— Jonathan Jackson (Lucky, GH) 1/25/10
— Doug Davidson (Paul, Y&R) 5/11/10
— Billy Miller (Billy, Y&R) 9/27/10
DARK HORSES:
— Trent Dawson (Henry, World Turns) 7/12/10
— Rick Hearst (Whip, B&B) 12/08/10; 12/09/10
— Brian Kerwin (Charlie, One Life) 1/4/10

Other ATWT nominee picks from NB:

  • Outstanding Drama Series: ATWT as Dark Horse (4/5/10 – Bob and Kim’s anniversary)
  • Outstanding Drama Series Writing: ATWT (9/17/10 – Our Town finale)
  • Outstanding Lead actress: Colleen Zenk (8/27/10 – Benry wedding)
  • Outstanding Lead Actor: Jon Lindstrom (4/29/10 – Lily tells Craig he’s Gabriel’s father; remorsefully, he visits Gabriel in the hospital)
  • Outstanding Supporting Actress: Janet Pinson (3/2/10 – Janet admits she slept with Dusty and learns Jack loves Carly), Terri Conn (8/30/10) and Lesli Kay (5/18/10) as Dark Horses

In addition, this confirms everyone’s Emmy reel choices. Eric submitted the “Elevator Scene” episode. JJ submitted the killer scene that EVERYONE is talking about where he confronts Elizabeth and Nikolas about their affair, and Trent submitted the awesome episode where he finds out about Vienna’s deception (and Katie’s complicity), and runs to reconcile with Barbara only to find that she’s missing.

Incidentally, Terri’s choice is a great one for her, too – it’s the episode after Chris collapses in the hospital and Katie runs out. It includes Kim confronting her for not being strong enough, the scene at Brad’s grave with Henry, Reid telling her to “Dry your eyes, blow your nose, and get your butt back to the hospital where you belong.”

I think there’s something wrong with the date for Lesli Kay’s reel, though because Molly doesn’t show up either in the SoapCentral recap or in the TVMegasite transcript for the May 18th episode (which was Lisa’s 50th anniversary “very special episode” (which would make it a REALLY strange choice for her anyways).

The front-runners in the Best Supporting Actor race

So, among those who had posted on the LA Times’s GoldDerby forum plus Nelson Branco and one additional site with predictions, the tally is:

  • Jonathan Jackson (GH, Lucky Spencer) – 12 votes
  • Eric Sheffer Stevens (ATWT, Reid Oliver) – 11 votes
  • Billy Miller (Y&R, Billy Abbott) – 11 votes
  • Jacob Young (AMC, JR Chandler) – 10 votes
  • Trent Dawson (ATWT, Henry Coleman) – 5 votes
  • Brian Kerwin (OLTL, Charlie Banks) – 5 votes
  • Doug Davidson (Y&R, Paul Williams) – 5 votes
  • Jason Thompson (GH. Patrick Drake) – 2 votes (from NB and the only person who didn’t have ESS on their list!)

Okay, so based on the pre-Emmy buzz, it should come as a surprise to no one that Jonathan Jackson is the top vote getter. But the fact that Eric is up there tied with Billy Miller is HUGE! Take this into consideration the company this puts him in:

  • Jonathan Jackson has won 3 Daytime Emmys (all for Outstanding Younger Actor) and has an additional 4 nominations
  • Billy Miller won Best Supporting Actor last year, the first year in which he was nominated
  • Jacob Young won Outstanding Younger Actor and has 3 additional nominations

Even those he outpolls are no slouches:

  • Trent Dawson has been nominated 3 times
  • Brian Kerwin has been nominated twice
  • Doug Davidson has 1 nomination
  • Only Jason Thompson has no nominations

Complete List of Supporting Actor Pre-Nominees (and their votes)

In case you’ve forgotten, the original list of actors is much longer (and the poor voters actually had to watch ALL of these reels to get to the ones that were actually in contention…that is, at least I HOPE they actually watched all of the reels!). They were:

All My Children, ABC
Cornelius Smith Jr. (Frankie Hubbard) – 0 votes
Jacob Young (JR Chandler) – 9 votes

As The World Turns, CBS
Eric Sheffer Stevens (Reid Oliver) – 10 votes
Trent Dawson (Henry Coleman) – 5 votes

The Bold and the Beautiful, CBS
Patrick Duffy (Stephen Logan) – 0 votes
Rick Hearst (Whip Jones) – 0 votes

Days of Our Lives, NBC
Shawn Christian (Daniel Jonas) – 0 votes
Jay Kenneth Johnson (Philip Kiriakis) – 0 votes

General Hospital, ABC
Jason Thompson (Patrick Drake) – 1 vote
Jonathan Jackson (Lucky Spencer) – 11 votes

One Life to Live, ABC
Brian Kerwin (Charlie Banks) – 5 votes
Mark Lawson (Brody Lovett) – 0 votes

The Young and the Restless, CBS
Billy Miller (Billy Abbott)  – 10 votes
Doug Davidson (Paul Williams) – 4 votes

Other Predictions

By far the earliest predictions (post pre-noms) came from a guy named Peter who writes the Stallion City blog. He describes himself as an “entertainment guru from Canada.” On his blog, he wrotes: “…this is the ONLY place to see clips from the actual episodes submitted to judges (oh yeah, I’m one of them)…” Writing about his nominee predictions, he said:

The pre-nominations were released this morning, and actors haven’t even yet had the chance to make selection regarding what their EMMY reel’s will entail. Unfortunately, I cannot wait! Here are my fearless predictions as to who WILL get a nomination pre-submissions!!!

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Jacob Young, All My Children
Trent Dawson, As the World Turns
Eric Sheffer Stevens, As the World Turns
Jonathan Jackson, General Hospital
Billy Miller, The Young & the Restless

I hope he’s right! With the exception of JJ (who sounds like he’s pretty awfully deserving – his reel certainly kicks butt), all the others have been on CBS with Jacob Young having played Rick Forrester for awhile when he was still kind of interesting (and playing Lucky Spencer during a break for Jonathan Jackson).

The other source for predictions (guess everyone else is waiting for tomorrow or for the nominations to actually be published) is the LA Times’s GoldDerby forum. Again, in case you’re not familiar with Gold Derby, best as I can tell, it’s an open forum, but it appears to be populated more by Industry insiders (or at least, insider wannabes or followers), rather than the usual population of soap fanboard fangirls (and boys). So my tendency is to take the opinions on their more seriously.

Of course, the posters there have their favorite soaps and actors/actresses, but the discussions more frequently leans towards good scene choice and less towards how “hot” actor X, Y or Z is. These are their choices (summed in the tally above):

Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Drama Series
Jacob Young as JR Chandler, All My Children (ABC)
Eric Sheffer Stevens as Dr. Reid Oliver, As the World Turns (CBS)
Jonathan Jackson as Lucky Spencer, General Hospital (ABC)
Doug Davidson as Paul Williams, The Young and the Restless (CBS)
Billy Miller as Billy Abbott, The Young and the Restless (CBS)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Eric Sheffer Stevens, As the World Turns, CBS
Billy Miller, The Young and the Restless, CBS
Doug Davidson, The Young and the Restless, CBS
Jonathan Jackson, General Hospital, ABC
Trent Dawson, As the World Turns, CBS

Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Trent Dawson as Henry Coleman (As the World Turns, CBS)
Eric Sheffer Stevens as Dr. Reid Oliver (As the World Turns, CBS)
Jonathan Jackson as Lucky Spencer (General Hospital, ABC)
Brian Kerwin as Charlie Banks (One Life to Live, ABC)
Billy J. Miller as Billy Abbott (The Young and the Restless, CBS)
SURPRISE PICK (nobody listed above that could get in): Doug Davidson as Paul Williams (The Young and the Restless, CBS)
LAST ONE IN: Brian Kerwin as Charlie Banks (One Life to Live, ABC)
FIRST ONES OUT: Cornelius Smith Jr. as Frankie Hubbard (All My Children, ABC), Jacob Young as J.R. Chandler (All My Children, ABC), Doug Davidson as Paul Williams (The Young and the Restless, CBS)
COMMENTARY: This is Dawson’s last chance for an Emmy, but his breakout ATWT co-star could one-up him. Jackson could easily win his fourth Daytime Emmy if he submitted the episode where Lucky confronts Liz and Nikolas. Reigning champ Miller could sneak in again this year, as could co-star Davidson.

Supp. Actor
Jacob Young, AMC
Eric Scheffer Stevens, ATWT
Jonathan Jackson, GH*
Brian Kerwin, OLTL
Billy Miller, YR

Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Drama Series
Jacob Young as JR Chandler, All My Children (ABC)
Eric Sheffer Stevens as Dr. Reid Oliver, As the World Turns (CBS)
Jonathan Jackson as Lucky Spencer, General Hospital (ABC) *applause*
Doug Davidson as Paul Williams, The Young and the Restless (CBS)
Billy Miller as Billy Abbott, The Young and the Restless (CBS)

Supporting Actor:
Billy Miller, The Young & the Restless
Jonathon Jackson, General Hospital
Eric Sheffer Stevens, As The World Turns
Jacob Young, All My Children
Brian Kerwin, One Life To Live
This sounds like exactly the right group. I think Eric and Brian are the least likely to get in. But It doesn’t matter, we all know Jonathon is winning in a cakewalk.

Supporting Actor:
Billy Miller, The Young & the Restless
Jonathon Jackson, General Hospital
Eric Sheffer Stevens, As The World Turns
Jacob Young, All My Children
Brian Kerwin, One Life To Live

Supporting Actor
Jacob Young,AMC
Jon Jackson,GH
Jason Thompson,GH
Brian Kerwin,OLTL
Billy Miller, Y&R

Supporting Actor
Jacob Young, AMC
Trent Dawson, ATWT
Eric Sheffer Stevens, ATWT
Jonathan Jackson, GH
Doug Davidson, Y&R

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jacob Young, All My Children
Trent Dawson, As The World Turns
Eric Sheffer Stevens, As The World Turns
Jonathan Jackson, General Hospital
Billy Miller, The Young & the Restless
DARK HORSE:
Brian Kerwin, One Life to Live
Doug Davidson, The Young & the Restless

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